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WHEAT Technical Analysis - WHEAT Trading: 2020-11-13
Wheat Technical Analysis Summary
Below 586.7
Sell Stop
Above 626.1
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Sell |
| MACD | Sell |
| Donchian Channel | Sell |
| MA(200) | Buy |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
Wheat Chart Analysis
Wheat Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe the WHEAT: D1 is falling toward the 200-day moving average MA(200) which is rising still. The RSI has formed a bearish divergence. We believe the bearish momentum will continue as the price breaches below the lower Donchian boundary at 586.7. A pending order to sell can be placed below that level. The stop loss can be placed above 626.1. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal high, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the expected profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level without reaching the order, we recommend cancelling the order: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Wheat
Wheat price decline continues after lower global ending stock forecast in WASDE. Will the wheat price continue declining?
The technical setup is bearish for wheat and price is under pressure from technical selling. However The Rosario Grains Exchange forecast wheat production in Argentina, a major global exporter, will be the lowest in five years. It downgraded Argentina's wheat harvest to 16.7 million tons, from its previous estimate of 17 million tons. And the US Department of Agriculture World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates November report on Tuesday forecast larger global 2020/21 supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks. Supplies are raised 0.7 million tons to 1,073.1 million. World consumption is increased 1.7 million tons to 752.7 million. Global trade is raised 0.9 million tons to 190.8 million. And projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons to 320.5 million but remain record high. Lower ending stock expectations are an upside risk for wheat price.
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