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Cocoa Technical Analysis - Cocoa Trading: 2023-04-12
Cocoa Technical Analysis Summary
Above 2930
Buy Stop
Below 2790
Stop Loss
| Indicator | Signal |
| RSI | Neutral |
| MACD | Buy |
| MA(200) | Neutral |
| Fractals | Neutral |
| Parabolic SAR | Sell |
| Bollinger Bands | Neutral |
Cocoa Chart Analysis
Cocoa Technical Analysis
On the daily timeframe, COCOA: D1 has exceeded the upper limit of the long-term neutral range. It must break out of the bullish flag before entering the position. A number of technical analysis indicators formed signals for further growth. We do not rule out a bullish movement if COCOA: D1 rises above the last up fractal and the Parabolic signal: 2930. This level can be used as an entry point. The initial risk limit is possible below the Parabolic signal, the last lower fractal and the lower Bollinger line: 2790. After opening a pending order, we move the stop following the Bollinger and Parabolic signals to the next fractal low. Thus, we change the potential profit/loss ratio in our favor. The most cautious traders, after making a trade, can switch to a four-hour chart and set a stop loss, moving it in the direction of movement. If the price overcomes the stop level (2790) without activating the order (2930), it is recommended to delete the order: there are internal changes in the market that were not taken into account.
Fundamental Analysis of Commodities - Cocoa
In West Africa, the cocoa crop may decline. Will COCOA quotes continue to rise?
The Ivory Coast Agriculture Ministry does not rule out a 25% y/y reduction in the country's 2nd crop (mid-crop) cocoa to 450,000 tons. Cleaning began April 1st. Earlier, Ivory Coast authorities said in the 2022/2023 agricultural marketing season (October 1 to April 1) shipments of cocoa to seaports decreased by 2.7% y/y to 1.81 million tons. The International Cocoa Organization estimated a decline in Ivory Coast cocoa exports in Q4 2022 at -9.3%. This could have been caused by Cocoa Swollen Shoot Virus Disease. If it spreads to other West African countries, the global harvest could be reduced. Recall that about 70% of the world's cocoa is produced in this region. The share of Ivory Coast exceeds 30% (1st place in the world).
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